4.2.3 PHASE 3: Establishing the key variables and associating them to explore and build the scenarios

1 scenario =

1 association of hypotheses with

1 hypothesis per variable

Once the critical variables of change have been selected, it is then possible to start constructing the scenarios by associating hypotheses.

The “hypotheses associations” reveal different possible pathways and form the framework for the scenarios.

In the case of exploratory scenarios, generally 3 to 5 scenarios are designed, while in the case of a normative scenario, only 1 scenario is defined, the preferred future, that associates only the desired hypotheses.

The choice to build exploratory or normative scenarios depends of the aims of the scenario building exercise.

Tools that can be used to reach the objectives of this phase:

Exploratory scenarios:
BRAINSTORMING
REGNIER
PESTLE

Normative scenarios:
REGNIER
BAYESIAN
BACKCASTING