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4 Build scenarios

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Objectives of this section
Bullet point blueto provide you a good comprehension of the different types of scenarios;
Bullet point blueto help you to identify the useful methods to be used in the context of your case study;
Bullet point blueto support you in terms of technical development of scenarios by providing concrete tools and examples.

This section deals with the way to build scenarios in support to environmental management. Most of its content is extracted from the scenario guideline developed under the VALMER project [Herry et al., 2013]. The examples are mainly selected among the VALMER sites experience. Some others are examples available in other literature references. In that case, the original sources are always mentioned.

Section outline


4 BUILD SCENARIOS
Section Line Section coordination by M. Philippe11, J. Ballé-Béganton11 and D. Bailly11 based on written contributions from J. Herry7, W. Dodds9, M. Philippe11 and A. Winder3

Bullet point blue 4.1 Scenarios, a tool to anticipate and consider the future
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.1.1 What do we mean by “scenarios”?
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.1.2 Different types of scenarios
Bullet point blue Title level 3 4.1.2.1 Exploratory scenario: What might happen?
Bullet point blue Title level 3 4.1.2.2 Normative scenario: How can a specific target be reached?
Bullet point blue Title level 3 4.1.2.3 Predictive scenario: what will happen?
Bullet point blue 4.2 Building scenarios, why and how?
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.2.1 PHASE 1: Illustrating the system being studied including natural processes and human activities
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.2.2 PHASE 2: Identifying drivers of change in the case study ecosystem
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.2.3 PHASE 3: Establishing the key variables and associating them to explore and build the scenarios
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.2.4 PHASE 4: Selecting and developing the format of the scenarios with stakeholders
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.2.5 PHASE 5: Using scenarios to create discussion on management options
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.2.6 In brief: List of tools that can be used for each phase of the scenario building process
Bullet point blue 4.3 Toolbox for scenario building
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.1 Interviews with stakeholders and/or experts
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.2 Stakeholders matrix
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.3 BRAINSTORMING
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.4 DELPHI
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.5 REGNIER’S ABACUS
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.6 TOOLS TO REPRESENT THE SYSTEM, PRESENT AND COMBINE INFORMATION, SYNTHESIZE KNOWLEDGE
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.7 ARDI METHOD
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.8 DPSIR
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.9 PESTLE AND MATRICES TO CLASSIFY THE POSSIBLE CHANGES
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.10 BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.11 BACKCASTING
Bullet point blue Title level 2 4.3.12 INVEST

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