4.1.2.1 Exploratory scenario: What might happen?

The exploratory scenario describes events and trends as they could evolve based on alternative assumptions on how these events and trends may influence the future. They provide several plausible futures that include external factors (the ones we do not have any influence on) and internal factors (elements it is possible to affect).

Exploratory scenarios example

Within the context of the European IMCORE project, stakeholders in the Golfe du Morbihan took part in 2 workshops in March and May 2010, supervised by members of a university (UBO) and a public syndicate (SIAGM), to determine how the area may evolve under climate change effects (possible futures).

The scenario-building process focused on the theme of “urban planning and infrastructures”. 3 scenarios around 5-6 pages each were developed and were then subjected to critical scrutiny by a panel of around sixty people to complete them, amend them and make them more realistic. These scenarios are available here .

Figure: done by Manuelle Philippe and Juliette Herry