5.1.6.5 Scenario phase 5: Scenario modelling

Pressure maps constructed for each scenario were used to condition the socio-ecological model, comprising direct pressures plus any indirect pressures such as demersal fishing displacement.

These were used to condition the socio-ecological model and outcomes in terms of change to ecosystem service provision (relative the current situation) by ecosystem service type and all services combined was mapped.

The scenario outcomes and corresponding spatial patterns of change in ecosystem service delivery varied for each of the three scenarios.

For the designation of recommended Marine Conservation Zones scenario, provision of the different ecosystem service types is variable; nursery provision is increased in some areas (especially in the North of Lundy rMCZ site) and decreased in others (due to pressure increases from fishing displacement), while both carbon sequestration and waste remediation only increase in service provision in the protected areas since the areas subject to fisheries displacement had negligible service provision under the current scenario.

Figure: SES model derived scenario outcomes showing change in ecosystem service delivery by type (a-c) and combined (d) for recommended Marine Conservation Zone (rMCZ) designation scenario.